United (Islamic) States of Africa, JNIM in Multipolarity, Again on JNIM & FLA, JNIM's power in Mali, Encroachment on Nigeria, Recent Raids on Djibo and Diapaga
ive only recently discovered your series, cant remember how. its both extremely illuminating and terrifying. i am west african (nigerian) and apart from your work theres been no serious attempt to demystify the jihadist insurgency in west africa despite being one of the most persistent conflicts. do you think the jihadist will ultimately succeed?
The jihadists have a real chance at winning in several countries. In my view, the worst case scenario is the collapse of Mali and Burkina Faso (+ parts of Niger) to JNIM, alongside the collapse of Niger to ISGS, allowing ISGS to physically link with ISWAP across Northern Nigeria. The collapse of the 3 Sahelian states would immediately intensify jihadism in neighboring states, especially coastal states like Nigeria and Benin. Frankly speaking, at the current rate, collapse is likely but it is not imminent - there is still time to stem this crisis.
Stemming the crisis would require (1) drastic changes in strategy to accommodate and respect the jihadist-prone communities and (2) close regional coordination to implement this strategy and military operations. Benin has begun doing (1) by involving local communities, especially Fulani, to undermine the appeal of jihadism. This is a model other states should follow while boosting defense capabilities.
Lastly, I am not the only researcher covering this subject - there have luckily been many others, whose work has been very influential on me. Below, I have linked 2 articles most relevant to you. They cover banditry and jihadism in Northwest Nigeria. I recommend going through CTC Sentinel and Hudson Institute to read their articles about jihadism in West Africa. Their research on this subject is very good.
Rob! I’ve been meaning to read your series as I have been meaning to read more about the Sahel insurgencies for a long time. This app is clogged, any change you can send me the link first piece in this series so that I may start from the beginning?
ive only recently discovered your series, cant remember how. its both extremely illuminating and terrifying. i am west african (nigerian) and apart from your work theres been no serious attempt to demystify the jihadist insurgency in west africa despite being one of the most persistent conflicts. do you think the jihadist will ultimately succeed?
The jihadists have a real chance at winning in several countries. In my view, the worst case scenario is the collapse of Mali and Burkina Faso (+ parts of Niger) to JNIM, alongside the collapse of Niger to ISGS, allowing ISGS to physically link with ISWAP across Northern Nigeria. The collapse of the 3 Sahelian states would immediately intensify jihadism in neighboring states, especially coastal states like Nigeria and Benin. Frankly speaking, at the current rate, collapse is likely but it is not imminent - there is still time to stem this crisis.
Stemming the crisis would require (1) drastic changes in strategy to accommodate and respect the jihadist-prone communities and (2) close regional coordination to implement this strategy and military operations. Benin has begun doing (1) by involving local communities, especially Fulani, to undermine the appeal of jihadism. This is a model other states should follow while boosting defense capabilities.
Lastly, I am not the only researcher covering this subject - there have luckily been many others, whose work has been very influential on me. Below, I have linked 2 articles most relevant to you. They cover banditry and jihadism in Northwest Nigeria. I recommend going through CTC Sentinel and Hudson Institute to read their articles about jihadism in West Africa. Their research on this subject is very good.
1. https://ctc.westpoint.edu/northwestern-nigeria-a-jihadization-of-banditry-or-a-banditization-of-jihad/
2. https://www.hudson.org/sahelian-or-littoral-crisis-examining-widening-nigerias-boko-haram-conflict
Rob! I’ve been meaning to read your series as I have been meaning to read more about the Sahel insurgencies for a long time. This app is clogged, any change you can send me the link first piece in this series so that I may start from the beginning?